After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. Cubs president Jed Hoyer announced Monday the club intends to release veteran outfielder Jason Heyward from the final year of his deal at the end of the 2022 season. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR Every other player produced at an incredibly high level from age 26 to age 35, maintaining their hitting line from 26 to 35 that they had in their early 20s. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. As expected, their value on defense drops over the next ten years, but a curious thing has happened to their offensive numbers simultaneously. . The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago. He flew out to center field in his other at-bat in Friday's game. Heyward will get paid. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted His rookie year was off-the-charts good Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 21 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. His 2012 projections are strong Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. This is how it usually works with increases in pulled grounders: Its a consequence of taking a more power-centric approach. If we pretend we know nothing about Heywards defense, we can come up with a set of comps based solely on his hitting, even removing his value on the basepaths. Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. Quinn worked this winter with hitting consultant Ryan Sutterer, who analyzed Quinns body movements and helped him understand how he can repeat his mechanics on a consistent basis. . Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. Interestingly, although Heyward swung less frequently than in any season since his 2010 debut, he finished with a 10.3% walk rate thats below his career average and set a new personal low for pitches per plate appearance. FOX Sports - Rowan Kavner 1d. Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. Manager Dave Roberts indicated Taylor would spend 20 to 25 percent of the games there, in addition to his usual work in the outfield. Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. Their average WAR is below. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Over 55 combined seasons, the group averaged five wins per season. Support FanGraphs. But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. With the exception of ZiPS, the projection systems (and the fans) see Heyward as more of a .270 hitter with a high OBP and 20-homer power in 2012: ZiPS: .255/.360/.427, 17 HR All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. FanSided 1 day Jason Heyward . Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed. That Aaron Boone batting order is plugged into the Lineup . Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. With an injury (and a team deflation) taking some of the wind out of Stantons sails, and Buster Posey blowing up the National League Most Valuable Player debate, the new toys got a lot more attention than the old new ones. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.coms latest ADP rankings. Just how healthy is Heyward? Jason Heyward, who was instrumental in the lore of the infamous Game 7 rain delay, was once the thorn in the side of fans looking for a scapegoat to blame for the club's lack of spending. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Games. fangraphs.com 1d. Massive crying face emoji. Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted No matter which group you look at, he is likely to be a productive player at age 30. Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Phillies (24th, 1.4 WAR) With Bryce Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the season, the spotlight is again on Nick Castellanos, whose performance in the first year of his five-year, $100 million deal was downright dreadful. But for now, we can revel in the fact that Jason Heyward, yeah he does a pretty good Mike Trout impression. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Just ask Jason Heyward. Heaney added that, in the regular season, he probably wouldnt have thrown that pitch in that situation. Ronald Guzmnex-first baseman for the Texas Rangers, is pumping out 97-98 fastballs. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 10 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Last year he hit for almost zero power, and his grounder pull rate went from 68% to 43%. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldnt legally buy a beer. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. Mike Trout represented, perhaps, a belief that we could quantify the other aspects of the game and assign them value. Alan Trejo will likely move into the second base spot with Brendan Rodgers on the IL. As can always be said when writing about a small sample: What we have here is something to monitor. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. . The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Jason Hayward signed an 8-year/$184,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, which includes a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $184,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $23,000,000. Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. Consequently, his walk rate has dropped from 14.6 percent to 11.1 percent. Looking solely at defense, these are the types of players who compare with Heyward. by Retrosheet. We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The Leaderboards. The next group of comps considers only offensive production. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. From 26 to 35, the group got better offensively and the only player who completely busted was Carey Patterson. Sources - Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, MLB.com, Baseball Reference. Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. Perhaps rightfully so. Maybe Heyward just belongs in that 110 120 range of wRC+. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Miguel Rojas will replace Lux at shortstop. The Pirates suggested that Oviedo begin throwing a sinker because his four-seam fastball naturally sinks. Heyward, as you know, is left-handed, and here is where he hit baseballs between 2014 2015: I dont know what, if anything, stands out right away. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. Matt Carpenter was the reverse. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards. When signing long-term contracts, teams tend to pay them out equally over the length of the contract. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. Its not surprising. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. In 2022, Heyward will earn a base salary of $22,000,000, with a total salary of $24,500,000. It was a true comfort level, not rattled at all. Sort the leaderboards for UBR or Ultimate BaseRunning, and Heyward floats to the top. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. From BIS, Heyward had the highest range numbers in the business. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The group also has five players at the top who were tremendous successes. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Andrew Heaney is fine with throwing meatballs. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Heres a bomb to right-center. Depending how long Rodgers is out of the lineup and whether the Rockies want to let him continue his preparation into the early days of the regular season someone has to play second. Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. FanGraphs Shirts. To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward had glowing praise for manager Dave Roberts, whom he calls a "baseball rat" who loves being around the game. Similarly, if you focus on Heywards triple crown numbers .269 with 27 home runs and 82 RBI youd be missing all that extra value he added in other facets of the game. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said. Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. Trejo, 27, is fine with pushing for all the starts he can at second if thats his opportunity to be in the lineup. Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Historically, Heyward has pulled just over half his grounders. Thats why I want to make sure you understand Im not really concluding anything. May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. Advanced fielding statistics Ultimate Zone Rating (. But hes younger than Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis and a host of other rookies who had successful debuts in 2011, and hes younger than top-ranked prospects entering 2012 like Devin Mesoraco, Brett Jackson and Travis DArnaud. Donate to FanGraphs. Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. Some call it a sweeper. Higgins over one inning. Crawford is WAY ahead of simba according to pretty much every defensive metric this year. He has slugged eight homers in 599 plate appearances as a big leaguer. Shelby Miller is a good young pitcher, but straight up for Heyward? FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . Additionally, Heyward had no say in November 2014, when his hometown Atlanta Braves, the club for whom he had foregone a full-ride scholarship to UCLA, traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals.